Forum:2017 Atlantic hurricane season
Post-Season Changes Surprised no one added this section yet, but so far we've had Arlene, her TCR came out two months ago. Anyone have thoughts on what we might see post-season? Ryan1000 15:53, September 6, 2017 (UTC) :I wonder if will we get TCRs for potential tropical cyclones.--Isaac829 19:21, September 6, 2017 (UTC) :An investigation into just how many records Irma set.(Klotzbach has linked to an obsolete PDF of Irma's records on Twitter today).Post-2005 we had some upgrades,if Irma actually outdid Allen they'll want to figure it out. 19:27, September 6, 2017 (UTC) ::I'm gonna be bold and say Jose will be upgraded to a Cat 5 post-season.--Isaac829 01:42, September 9, 2017 (UTC) :::Thoughts: Cindy may go up to 55 knots, Emily will probably be found to have formed earlier and get an upgrade to 45 knots, Jose will probably be upgraded to C5, and Katia will probably be found to have formed earlier. ~ KN2731 {talk} 05:02, September 10, 2017 (UTC) I wonder what will be done with PTC Ten. Could it potentially be designated as an unnamed subtropical storm? Andros 1337 (talk) 19:16, September 13, 2017 (UTC) I have the feeling Jose will be upgraded to a C5, it looked more organized the hour before it was upgraded to 155 mph. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 20:06, September 13, 2017 (UTC) :I definitely think that Jose will be upgraded to a C5. I also think Emily and Harvey will get an upgrade. Emily had a 45 kt peak and Harvey had a peak of 120 kt over land. The most likely thing to happen, however, is Irma getting an upgrade to 165 kt. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] 2'0'1'7' 22:15, September 13, 2017 (UTC) :::I'm not sure how the NHC will treat potential tropical cyclones after the season; if PTC 10 gets a report it may be upgraded to an unnamed storm post-season. If Jose doesn't make landfall, I'd like him to be upgraded to a cat 5 so we can have at least one Atlantic cat 5 to never make landfall anywhere at any intensity. Ryan1000 23:35, September 13, 2017 (UTC) :::::After contacting the NHC myself, one of their forecasters said that, if a potential tropical cyclone is not upgraded to a TD or TS in reanalysis, it will only get a best track line and data, but not its own tropical cyclone report. So PTC 10 this year won't get its own TCR (assuming its not upgraded in reanalysis), but it will still get mention in their best track record. Ryan1000 02:36, September 15, 2017 (UTC) KN2731 made this kind of table for reanalysis tropical cyclone reports on the EPac forum page, I'll add this here for the Atlantic too. When a TCR comes out, you can put it in the proper column for that storm, we'll have a side-by-side comparison with operational and reanalysis intensity as well: Hopefully this helps with identifying intensity upgrades/downgrades. Arlene's pressure was knocked down by 3 mbars in reanalysis thus far. EDIT: Slightly changed, this'll make it look better. Ryan1000 20:35, September 26, 2017 (UTC) :Thanks for helping to copy it over. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:22, September 30, 2017 (UTC) ::And soz for the late response on this. But I agree with Jose being a Cat 5 since its close to 160 mph. Hi!- 00:28, October 4, 2017 (UTC) ::That table is very neat. I would give a chance for Jose being upgraded to a C5, and Irma could be upgraded to 190 mph. PTC 10 has a chance of being upgraded to something (sub)tropical. Harvey's windspeed could be slightly upgraded as well. ~ Steve Talk Page 22:55, October 5, 2017 (UTC) ::::I doubt that Harvey will be upgraded to a 140 mph cat 4 in reanalysis; there could be minor pressure adjustments but the winds will likey stay the same. If Irma is upgraded to a 190 mph hurricane, she'd tie Allen, which would be a record for the strongest September hurricane in windspeed. Also, added Nate. Feel free to edit his intensity as time goes on. Ryan1000 00:05, October 7, 2017 (UTC) :::::Lots of people are saying that TD 17 should have formed much earlier, even up to 42 hours ago. Maybe this will show up in reanalysis. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:31, October 9, 2017 (UTC) ::::::Since Nate was so close from being a Cat 2, maybe it'll be upgraded to that intensity. Hi!- 01:14, October 10, 2017 (UTC) ::::::::I've slightly edited Harvey and Lee to put in the times when they were tropical cyclones, as they dissipated and later regenerated. Not expecting Nate to be upgraded to a cat 2, but I wouldn't be surprised if Irma gets a windspeed upgrade in reanalysis. Ryan1000 02:41, October 12, 2017 (UTC) :::::::::Hopefully the NHC can use this lull (both basins they monitor are dead) to work on more TCRs. I'm hoping Ophelia gets buffed slightly due to her great satellite presentation. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:25, October 20, 2017 (UTC) I've slightly edited the table again to include the date of the TCR, the links will be in the storm names when they come out, like you did in the EPac. Ryan1000 19:57, October 27, 2017 (UTC) : Looks like TD 4 went up on the NHC page, though the TCR itself was released on October 20, 13 days ago. The only changes are the pressure being raised by 1 mbar and that it was found to have formed one day earlier, on July 5 instead of 6. Ryan1000 05:05, November 2, 2017 (UTC) :: Ryan, you meant to say TD 4''' but instead, you said TD 6. Hi!- 14:31, November 2, 2017 (UTC) ::I think you meant TD 4. Anyway, it was a shame its winds weren't upped to 35 mph, I was kinda hoping they would be. ~ '''KN2731 {talk} 14:30, November 2, 2017 (UTC) ::::Sorry, meant to say 4, fixed. Looks like the NHC may take a while to finish the TCR's on the big 3 hurricanes this year, they may not be finished until next year's season starts. Ryan1000 21:15, November 2, 2017 (UTC) Here's what you guys think about the upgrades. *'Cindy' **May be upgraded to 55 kn. ***''Dropped one millibar but otherwise, no wind change. Four down, six to go.'' *'Emily' **May have formed earlier and be upgraded to 45 kn. ***''Not out yet'' *'Harvey' **May peak at 120 kn over land. ***''Dropped by one millibar, no wind change. Two down, eight to go.'' *'PTC 10' **May be upgraded to a (sub)tropical storm. ***''Sorry guy, but you did not get upgraded. Three down, seven to go.'' *'Irma' **May be upgraded to 190 mph. ***''Not out yet'' *'Jose' **May be upgraded into a Category 5. ***''Not out yet'' *'Katia' **May have formed earlier. ***''It stayed the same. One down, nine to go.'' *'Lee' **May have been two separate storms. ***''Not out yet'' *'Nate' **May be upgraded into a Category 2. ***''Not out yet'' *'Ophelia' **May have formed earlier. ***''Not out yet'' I will update them once the TCRs are out. Hi!- 00:10, November 14, 2017 (UTC) Have a break, have a KitKatIA. SUPREME COLGATE CREW 21:26, November 29, 2017 (UTC) :And Katia is exactly the same. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:28, November 30, 2017 (UTC) :::The Don is here. Lifespan was shortened slightly, but pressure got a minor boost. Send Help Please (talk) 22:47, January 2, 2018 (UTC) :::::NHC should update their site more often...Don's TCR was released two weeks ago on December 19, they just didn't put it up on their site until today. Ryan1000 01:02, January 3, 2018 (UTC) :::::::Whoops, sorry about that. Makes me wonder how many other TCRs they are keeping from us. Send Help Please (talk) 02:37, January 3, 2018 (UTC) :::::::I think Jose'll become a Cat 5. Cangialosi said in advisory 15 - ::::::: An average of the aircraft's flight level winds, SFMR values, and dropsonde data support an intensity of 135 kt,' making Jose very near category 5 strength'. It is surprising that Jose is as strong as the aircraft data suggests, since the' hurricane's satellite appearance has degraded a little during the last several hours. It's a lock for Cat 5 in post analysis. 15:14, January 3, 2018 (UTC) :unless jose drops in pressure i doubt it will be a category 5 Cane Harvey (Harvey) 03:20, February 27, 2018 (UTC) Rina's is now on the website! Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 19:06, January 10, 2018 (UTC) :Turns out Rina formed a day earlier and her pressure was knocked down by 4 mbars. Nutfield001 (talk) 20:58, January 10, 2018 (UTC) :::Looks like they're knocking out the easy ones first. I do hope that these updates become more frequent though. Send Help Please (talk) 23:35, January 11, 2018 (UTC) Harvey's TCR is out. As Ryan said, the pressure got a slight adjustment as it was downed to 937 mbars from 938. However, the winds stayed the same. Nutfield001 (talk) 16:08, January 25, 2018 (UTC) : NHC says that they're 90% confident of a damage total for Harvey being between 90-160 billion dollars, although it is currently still projected to be about 125 billion, which, while behind Katrina, is still a worst-case scenario damage total for a hurricane flood disaster in the Houston metro area. Another thing that should be pointed out is Harvey dissipated late on August 19th in his TCR reanalysis, not the 20th as operationally reported. Ryan1000 21:47, January 25, 2018 (UTC) ::Katrina just doesn’t want to give the top spot up, doesn’t she? Leeboy100 Hello!! 00:29, January 26, 2018 (UTC) :::Lol ikr. The only way Harvey's going to surpass Katrina now is if Harvey's damage ends up at the very top of the NHC's given range. Also I'm surprised Harvey's TCR came out this early; even Bret's TCR hasn't appeared yet. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:53, January 26, 2018 (UTC) :::::...Or perhaps the NHC is just too lazy to put up the weak storm TCR's on their site...remember, Don was finished two weeks before the NHC updated their site with his TCR, maybe that's also the case with some storms like Bret. Ryan1000 00:18, January 27, 2018 (UTC) ::::::I will be surprised if Lee is not two separate storms in its TCR. Look at this: [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] 2'0'1'8' 18:10, January 27, 2018 (UTC) :::::::Wow... has that ever happened in the Atlantic before? If that is the case, there will be 2 Lees back-to-back (Lee 1 and Lee 2) and the 10-hurricane streak will be cut due to Lee 1 peaking as a TS. There's also a probable chance of PTC 10 being upgraded to a STS or TS, which would also split the streak. And, Wikipedia now lists both Harvey and Katrina as tied for damages. That tie will probably be broken someday though. Luckily the near-$200 billion initial estimate for Harvey does not appear to be true. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 05:41, January 28, 2018 (UTC) :::::::I honestly believe Maria is going to be last, compare to other places hit, I believe PR in its condition hasnt report the exact damage or death toll of Maria so I guess the NHC specialist would wait doing the report of Maria, PR compare to Texas or Florida which were hit by Harvey and Maria was completely totalled nor it can receive help as easily as the aforemention states- Allan Calderini :::::::: Huh, 2 storms and the first one would split the hurricane streak? Even in death, what could become known as Lee 1 continues to disappoint. Although, the fact that two storms could receive the name Lee does make my “season full of Lees” quote during TS Philippe a bit ironic. Also, @Steve, I don’t think that there has been an occurrence in the Atlantic of multiple storms being considered one, at least none that I know of, but there have been some in the WPAC. Although, it wouldn’t be the first time two Atlantic storms received the same name in the same season. I’m looking at you, 1954... Leeboy100 Hello!! 09:09, January 29, 2018 (UTC) PTC 10's TCR is out, turns out it didn't become tropical or subtropical during its existence as a disturbance. Nutfield001 (talk) 16:46, January 31, 2018 (UTC) : Looks like Cindy's TCR went up on the NHC website. Only change is that her pressure was knocked down slightly to 991 mbars. The TCR itself was released five days ago at the time of posting, though. Nutfield001 (talk) 18:48, January 31, 2018 (UTC) :: Same with PTC 10, it also came out 5 days ago. However, the update on the NHC's site for ten isn't exactly a "tropical cyclone report", as ten didn't become a tropical cyclone, but rather, it's just a list of warnings and watches issued for the disturbnce while it was active. So the post-season report on PTC ten won't be considered part of the TCR table above. Ryan1000 22:31, January 31, 2018 (UTC) :::Philippe's TCR is out and it brings big changes. Turns out what was operationally assessed as a 50-kt TS after clearing Florida was in fact a separate, non-tropical circulation. As for Philippe? Peaked at a measly 35 kts, was a TS for only 6 hours, a tropical cyclone for only 18, fizzed over Cuba. How's that for a dent in a storm's ego? --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 21:47, February 2, 2018 (UTC) ::::Depending on how NHC handles Lee's final track, its ego might get a bigger dent.--Isaac829 22:21, February 2, 2018 (UTC) :::::NHC has hinted they will be keeping Lee as one system based on this tweet from Eric Blake. Says mid-level remnant regen within same basin counts. Not for basin crossers tho (thats why we dont have Earl 2016 and Franklin and Katia 2017 being in the EPac). But it was a very complex regen and I'm eager to see how they describe it. TCR should be out within a week according to Eric as well. :::::As for Philippe, I had my suspicions with it since it was looking very skimpy and ill-defined while it was nearing the Florida Keys, and after this tweet, I began to think that it may have actually dissipated over Cuba. Apparently the hybrid low was being tagged operationally as Philippe to retain warnings (though I dont see a point since it was moving away from land at that point. Either way that is a major downgrade and one I havent seen in a long time, and the new track for it is so cringe-worthy now. Basically it is the Atlantic's version of Unala 2013 from the CPac. --MarioProtIV (talk) 22:46, February 2, 2018 (UTC) :::::: Lmao. What a waste of a name that Philippe was. And with PTC 10's bust and Lee looking very likely to stay as one system, I guess the record-breaking 10 hurricane streak is final. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 20:22, February 3, 2018 (UTC) ::::::: Quite a downgrade, I say...Looks like Philippe was a bigger fail than I thought. The only bigger reanalysis nerfs I know of are those from the hurricane reanalysis project (Ethel of 1960, for example, was operationally thought to have rapidly strengthened to a 160 mph category 5 in the GOM, but it was knocked down to a mere 115 mph in reanalysis). Ryan1000 12:42, February 4, 2018 (UTC) : Well it reminds me to Hurricane Adrian in 2005 which was suppose to have make landfall as a hurricane in El salvador and in post analysis it was found to have been just a td who make landfall in Honduras.Allancalderini12 (talk) 02:33, February 7, 2018 (UTC) No new TCR releases for a month. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:08, March 1, 2018 (UTC) NHC doesn't update their site often. It could be possible that they may be done with 3 TCR. From one of the tweets from Eric Blake a couple of weeks ago, the TCR on Lee may be done by mid-February. I'm also thinking that they may be done with Bret's and Emily's, and maybe even Franklin and Gert. Maybe they may update their site this weekend or next week. --'Roy25' 17:14, March 1, 2018 (UTC) :I can only recall back from November 28 to January 9 where no new TCRs appeared on their website despite Don's TCR being completed on 19th December. Anyways I hope they can get more TCRs up and done with, it's boring having to wait roughly a month for a TCR in the off-season. Nutfield001 (talk) 08:43, March 2, 2018 (UTC) Finally, something new, Lee’s out now. And it remains one system. Nothing has really changed. Pressure’s the same, winds the same, but finally some progress with the TCR’s. Leeboy100 Hello!! 17:39, March 5, 2018 (UTC) :Lee's TCR was actually finished on February 13, so I wonder why they didn't update their site by then. What is interesting is that the original system formed a day earlier and lasted slightly longer with its LLC dissipating on September 20. Anyways, it's nice to see more progress with the TCRs. Nutfield001 (talk) 18:00, March 5, 2018 (UTC) Finally! Not suprised Lee was done since mid February as Eric Blake tweeted like a week prior to that time. I'm feeling they are also done with others, like Bret and Emily's. --'Roy25' 20:45, March 5, 2018 (UTC) : The NHC doesn't update their site that often in the off-season since the marine forecasts they issue for high-seas outside of hurricane season don't get as much attention, nor are as threatening, as hurricanes threatening ships during hurricane season. Aside from some Atlantic storms, I have a feeling they've also finished Greg, Max, and Norma in the 2017 EPac season (the only 3 TCR's from last year that aren't up on their site yet), they just haven't bothered to update their site with them yet. Since Irma and Maria were so devastating for much of the Caribbean, we might not get them released until much later this year. In fact, Katrina's finalized impacts weren't updated until 2011, 6 years later, and the costliest tropical cyclones table currently up on the NHC's site may certainly change several years down the road when the total damage of the hurricanes last year is eventually finalized for good. I personally find it hard for Harvey and Katrina to be perfectly tied for the top spot... Ryan1000 05:21, March 6, 2018 (UTC) ::Well, technically Katrina's $125 billion total is in 2005 USD, so if you account for inflation, you get $160 billion in 2017 USD, which happens to be the 90% confidence upper limit for Harvey (according to the TCR). So Katrina still supposedly holds top spot unless final damage totals for Harvey are confirmed to be above $160 billion. However, inflation is rarely accounted for because it's troublesome to do so for all storms; if you had a table of say the top 30 costliest storms in the US you'd have to update all 30 of them every year. Also which conversion rate should be used is another sticking point. Anyway, it's happy to see that Lee's TCR is out and the NHC isn't dead. Something to note is that the last convective burst before it dissipated for the first time was counted as part of its original lifetime, so his ACE got a small boost. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:17, March 6, 2018 (UTC) :::I was referring to their damage at the time in that statement. Although, I would personally prefer to use inflation into today's dollars to account for the damage of hurricanes in the past. It wouldn't be fair to consider a storm like Andrew to be less destructive than Ike, as the dollar value changes over time (Andrew would've done much more damage than Ike had he struck in 2008, and Ike would've done much less if he hit in 1992). Ryan1000 01:46, March 7, 2018 (UTC) After months of waiting, Jose’s TCR has been posted on the site, and unfortunately, we’ll have to keep waiting for a fishspinning Atlantic Cat 5. Nothing’s changed, and Jose is still a Cat 4. Leeboy100 Hello!! 17:31, March 9, 2018 (UTC) : Looks like Jose's TCR was completed on Feb 20, and also Bret's TCR is up as well, which was completed Mar 5. I'm honestly suprised Jose was completed this early as I had expected him to be one of the latest TCR to be released. Bret's windspeed was increased to 50 mph, while there's no changes to Jose. And yes, I'm shocked he was not upgraded to a Cat5 hurricane. --'Roy25' 20:26, March 9, 2018 (UTC) ::I'm not too surprised that Jose wasn't given the upgrade. Hurricane Joaquin in 2015 wasn't given the upgrade in his TCR and a few other storms such as Igor in 2010 had winds as high as 155mph, but weren't given the upgrade. Nice to see Bret's winds upped though. Nutfield001 (talk) 00:10, March 10, 2018 (UTC) :::I'm a bit upset Jose couldn't get the upgrade to cat 5 in reanalysis so we could have at least one fishspinner cat 5 in the Atlantic, but oh well. Some other time we'll see one. I too am surprised Bret came out only 4 days ago, I thought he would've been released much earlier but just not put on the website until now, like Don. That leaves 7 TCR's remaining. Irma or Maria are probably going to be last among those. Ryan1000 03:28, March 10, 2018 (UTC) ::::I'm also a bit surprised by the lack of an upgrade to Jose's intensity. I mean it was so close to C5 that we speculated that it might have been one briefly... but I guess the lack of upgrade was a bit expected due to the lack of an upgrade for Joaquin and Igor. Atlantic is truly cursed to not produce a truly C5 fishspinner it seems... Also I agree that Irma or Maria might be last. ~ Steve Talk Page 05:37, March 10, 2018 (UTC) I just call it the 155 curse now. I feel like so many storms get up to this windspeed but fail to pump up a couple more miles. Disappointing. I really wanted Jose to be a c5 not just for the sake of having a fishspinning c5 but to have 2 c5s in a row.Swirling Magnetar (talk) 06:07, March 10, 2018 (UTC) : Some people are now arguing about Jose's TCR on Twitter. I believe that the NHC need to revise Jose's TCR because by the time recon investigated Jose, his cloud pattern and structure had both degraded significantly. Btw, I just found out that both Joaquin and Jose's TCR were written by the same forecaster, Robbie Berg. Xyklone (talk) 14:50, March 10, 2018 (UTC) :: I guess he doesn't want a Category 5 in the Atlantic lmao. Jose was a Cat 5, and aircraft recon found it, but it would have been cool for 2 Cat 5s in a row, one a harmless fish and the other a havoc generator. I wonder if there ever were 2 Cat 5s in a row in the Atlantic before. Nevertheless, Jose stays as a Cat 4. --'Roy25' 18:03, March 10, 2018 (UTC) :::The wait for an Atlantic C5 fishspinner continues... sigh. We have Emily, Franklin, Gert, Irma, Maria, Nate, and Ophelia left. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:22, March 11, 2018 (UTC) :::: I'm gonna guess the NHC may be done with Emily's TCR, and maybe Gert's as well as a near-completion of Franklin and Nate. Ophelia may be near-completion as well, but might take slightly longer to finish. Then Irma and Maria will be the last two. This is just my guess of which TCR will be completed first. --'Roy25' 16:42, March 11, 2018 (UTC) :::::It actually looks to be that Irma's TCR will be released before every other storm mentioned. Things that occurred just before Harvey and Jose's TCRs (damage tolls and death toll raise/decrease) are happening to Irma. Looks like Maria will be last. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] 2'0'1'8' 20:00, March 11, 2018 (UTC) ::::::It seems like that Jose’s TCR was posted twice for some reason. Xyklone (talk) 14:19, March 12, 2018 (UTC) :::::::Irma is out! Biggest change is that peak intensity was revised down to 155 knots from 160. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:37, March 12, 2018 (UTC) ::::::::LOL, it seem like the NHC is trolling us. First they’d made Jose’s wind stay the same despite the expectations of it being upgraded to a cat-5. Now Irma’s got downgraded instead of being upgraded, in the contrary of our expectations. Xyklone (talk) 14:57, March 12, 2018 (UTC) Damn, Irma is out. I'm suprised, and TG nailed it. Well, then Maria is definitely the last TCR. I must say, that's a big downgrade, but nothing compared to Phillippe's downgrade. With Irma out, now we wait for six more TCR, which is Emily, Franklin, Gert, Maria, Nate and Ophelia. NHC has to be done with Emily's. Idk what's taking hers so long.--'Roy25' 15:24, March 12, 2018 (UTC) : Neither do I, but the NHC may not be as concerned with updating their site with the weaker storm's TCR's as much as the more notable storms of the year, and Irma, among others, severely affected more land areas than any other storm in 2017, I expected hers would come out later but it may still be one of the last ones, assuming the NHC already finished the other TCR's but just hasn't bothered to put them up on their site. With Irma's 5 mph downgrade in windspeed, her ACE got cut back a little bit, but she still has the 3rd highest for any Atlantic hurricane, and is still the 5th costliest hurricane of all time according to the TCR, behind Harvey, Maria, Katrina, and Sandy. Ryan1000 15:52, March 12, 2018 (UTC) :: It seems that these storms like to disappoint us slightly, such as Philippe's huge downgrade due to that hybrid low being considered non-tropical in the TCR, the lack of Jose's upgrade to a C5 and the slight downgrade in the peak winds of Irma. Her downgrade both surprised and disappointed me, because since she managed to hold her peak winds for a record breaking time I thought she could've dug up a few knots of intensity. So it seems that some of these storms (particularly Irma and Jose) ended up underperforming our expectations. I'm also surprised she came out this early as Emily's TCR isn't even up on the site yet. Nutfield001 (talk) 17:23, March 12, 2018 (UTC) I'm shocked.How did this even happen? We thought it held 185 mph for 37 hours, but it gets downgraded to 180 mph? I was hoping for an upgrade to 190 mph so she could tie Allen. How could they have been so wrong for such a major hurricane? I don't get it. Swirling Magnetar (talk) 19:38, March 12, 2018 (UTC) This isn't related to the post-season changes, but it's related to the 2017 AHS, but the WMO has published the Hurricane Committee reports from the members on their website. Might want to check that out. --'Roy25' Happy St. Patrick's Day!!! 23:07, March 15, 2018 (UTC) : Yeah, you can see those if you click on the links on this page here, though the NHC still hasn't updated their site with the rest of the TCR's, or specifically requested names for retirement in the available docs; it's usually in the agenda items though it wasn't mentioned there, maybe it's somewhere else. Ryan1000 03:21, March 22, 2018 (UTC) ::NHC just selected their new director. Maybe that's why the TCR releases have been on hiatus for a while. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:11, March 23, 2018 (UTC) oi oi OIIIII FRANKIE IS UP CHECK HIM OUT HERE, DANKLIN IS ONE HOT THING BBY ｕｒ ｍａｉ ｗａｉｆｕ ｄｅｓｕ ノ域囲真 20:28, March 26, 2018 (UTC) :Nice to know that Franklin's out, but his TCR was completed on March 12, which was two weeks ago. His winds, pressure, and dates of his existence hasn't changed. With Franklin out, now we wait for 5 more TCRs, which is Emily, Gert, Maria, Nate, and Ophelia. --'Roy25' 22:39, March 26, 2018 (UTC) ::Gert has arrived. She wound up a bit stronger than initially thought, especially in terms of pressure, and formed a little earlier. 4 left. Send Help Please (talk) 19:26, April 5, 2018 (UTC) :::I was expecting Gert to be stronger than what was operationally given since the satellite imagery at peak intensity looks too good. TBH, I was expecting Gert a major hurricane, but this upgrade would do. All that's left now with Gert's TCR release is Emily, Maria, Nate, and Ophelia. Judging from the date that Gert's TCR was completed, I'm positive they are done with Emily's TCR. --'Roy25' 22:03, April 5, 2018 (UTC) ::::I was kind of hoping for a Cat. 3 Gert as well, as that would tie 2017 with 1961 and 2005 for the highest number of majors in one season in the Atlantic. Oh well, I guess this season was insane enough as-is. Send Help Please (talk) 04:08, April 6, 2018 (UTC) :::::My rough order for the four remaining TCRs is Emily, Nate, Ophelia and Maria. Ophelia was quite an interesting storm and I want to see how that turns out. Shame Gert couldn't try harder to become a major, but that was a decent upgrade in her TCR. Nutfield001 (talk) 20:14, April 6, 2018 (UTC) Maria's TCR is out, surprisingly a lot earlier than I thought. Winds, pressure and lifespan remains untouched. Nutfield001 (talk) 13:12, April 9, 2018 (UTC) Emily's TCR is also out as well, although the actual TCR was completed on Easter Monday (Maria's TCR was also completed at an earlier date, on 5th April). And Emily received quite a boost, found out to have peaked at 60mph and 1001 mbars instead of the operational 45mph and 1005 mbars. She was also found out to have formed earlier, on July 30 instead of July 31. So the only two left so far are Nate and Ophelia. Nutfield001 (talk) 13:19, April 9, 2018 (UTC) The TCR for Nate is now up on NHC's site, with the actual TCR completed on April 5. Winds, pressure and lifespan remain unchanged. Ophelia's one is the only one left on the list. Not updating the betting pools until I can confirm the date that Ophelia's TCR was completed. Nutfield001 (talk) 13:36, April 9, 2018 (UTC) :Looks like NHC siked many of us with Maria's earlier-than-expected TCR. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:15, April 9, 2018 (UTC) General Discussion Not sure if I'm allowed to make a new section like this, if not just remove. Anyways, I thought a section for general discussion about the season could be helpful and have some use. Discussion about anything related to the season, its storms and effects... 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 11:46, October 15, 2017 (UTC) :This is what Forum:Hurricane Talk and Forum:Worldwide activity discussion are for. Use those.--Isaac829 18:42, October 15, 2017 (UTC) Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Nate Potentially Retired Gonna add this section as the 40th Session of the Hurricane Committee is starting tomorrow by EST time (today by UTC). We might probably get our retired names by Thursday-Saturday and the replacement names. Nevertheless, I'm making my final call, and I'm sure you all can agree, that Harvey, Irma, and Maria will be retired and Nate most likely. Ophelia also has a decent chance to go, but I doubt it. --'Roy25' 00:02, April 9, 2018 (UTC) : Seeing as how the 40th session of the RA IV hurricane meeting is going to announce the retirees of 2017 later this week, I've archived the (extremely long) sections we had above on retirement predictions and replacement names from last year's season. Any further speculation on what names will be retired from last season or their replacements can be done here in this section. But since we still have 4 more TCR's to go for the NHC's site, we won't archive the post-season changes section just yet. Ryan1000 01:31, April 9, 2018 (UTC) ::Well, look at the Costa Rica report from the WMO, it says that Nate had caused US$562 million in loses, including economic loses, much higher than before, which was US$185 million. Might as well say Nate already has a much higher chance of retirement. --'Roy25' 01:49, April 9, 2018 (UTC) :::Like Ryan's, my projection from months ago at the conclusion of the season on 'Retirements at a Glance' was that Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Nate would be our retirees for this year. If 4 names are retired, it will be the most names retired from a naming list since 2005. I will make the final call that the above four names will be the names that will be removed, but Nate is definitely the wild card. However, I would be genuinely surprised if Ophelia was retired. The Costa Rica WMO report is pretty damning for a case to make for the retirement of Nate but there is still about a 25% chance that it's not retired for whatever reason. It'll be pretty difificult for me to get my replacement name projections on point, but the ones I selected a while ago were Hunter, Ivy, Megan, ''and ''Noah'. ''Bring on the excitement of this week! Owen 02:11, April 9, 2018 (UTC)'' ::::I also projected that those would be the names that would be retired. I used to also have Ophelia as a 5th candidate before we had to decrease its chance because of the lowering of damage estimates. I predict the replacements will be Henley, Ivy, Maggie, and Noah respectively. Can't wait for the final decision! ~ Steve Talk Page 05:44, April 9, 2018 (UTC) :::::I saw the Costa Rica report from Nate and not only are there a lot of images of roads and bridges being washed out, but there was a lot of flooding in the country and if their report on Nate's damage is accurate, then that's almost 3 times what Otto did, not to mention 3 more fatalities than Otto. Nate certainly a high chance of being retired if Otto went as well. Ryan1000 11:13, April 9, 2018 (UTC) ::::::My final calls for retirements are Harvey, Irma, Maria and Nate and I predict for these four to be replaced by Henley, Ivy, Monica/Monika and Neil. No offense, but I can't see the name Noah being used in list III, as IMO it would look out of place. Nutfield001 (talk) 13:50, April 9, 2018 (UTC)